I think this analysis forgets one of the most obvious ways to gain market share, in particular in a market where the pace of innovation is slowing down and there is no big difference between the different offers: PRICE! I guess that will be exactly the area in which the chinese competitors ZTE and Huawei will continue to attack in. Other big companies have also shown that they will differentiate themself on price, see Google and their Nexus offerings, which substantially lowered the price tag for what can be considered a high-end device. But also keep an eye on Amazon, which already entered the tablet market on the basis of low device prices.
On the software end of things the most interesting development to watch will be whether the likes of Firefox OS will manage to push plattform independent apps (at least as the third option for app developers, i.e. apps being developed for iOS, Android, and then plattform independent for the rest, rather than separately for a handful of niche systems). If that succeeds, than Firefox OS (and maybe others) will most likely again try to compete on price with simple web-devices without too much inbuilt features.