Just a suggestion to Orange...

[Guest Big Ron - No Longer a Mem]

I believe that Orange bigwigs are supposed to trawl the site, so it seemed a good place to chuck-in an idea about strategy... and Orange's all-but forgotten majority of customers - the non-high-usage-PAYGoer's.

I bought my first mobile - a Motorola T2288e in the closing weeks of the war between UK carriers to gain market share. A few weeks later, a truce was agreed, and they stopped subsidising PAYG handsets. (I paid, if I recall, £28 including £5 or "free" airtime.) Somewhere around 2/3 of Orange's customers are on PAYG - that's TWO for every one of them who is on a "Pay Monthly" contract. The reasons for being on PAYG are many - maybe you're too young to enter a legally binding contract, and Dad's not stupid enough to guarantee your monthly bill by putting it in HIS name. Maybe - like me, and many others - your usage patterns simply made PAYG "the logical choice". If so, then as they years went by, you saw your phone getting comparatively brick sized when placed next to the models that are subsidized for the "Pay Monthlies". Not only that, but their phones have features that weren't even dreamed of when yours was new. (Mine had SMS, WAP, and a truly diabolically user-unfriendly interface) There must be literally MILLIONS of us out there (although I've now got another, newer phone, and changed to a strange O2 contract - again, because it was the logical choice) There's NO WAY I'm going to pay £100+ for a new phone, just because it's smaller and "sexier" - and offers some amusing features. I might WANT the features, but in truth, I'm not really going to USE them much. Phones are 51% fashion accessory - they provide a degree of "Street Cred" (or dismally fail to if you've still got a T2288e!)

Certainly, there's no way you're going to make money subsidising ME getting a new phone - because the profit you made annually from my calls wouldn't even pay for a replacement battery pack. But, like the NatWest advert says: "There IS another way!" Hunt around the web, and you'll find three or four dealers who specialise in exporting "14 day" and refurbished handsets. There's only ONE place these can have come from - the carriers. A quick check of the models on offer show that Orange is one of the carriers who dumps "old" phones into the foreign markets. Did I say "OLD"? A Siemens SL45 isn't "old" - not compared with my Motorola, anyway. (I know people who still use their T2288e's, in the face of a £100 or so "upgrade" charge faced by PAYG customers) And it seems that the carriers dumped a bunch of "14 day" SL45's into the second-user market - sold on individually at £70. (Incl VAT & Insured Delivery) Vibra alert for meetings, Dictaphone, MP3 Player... Now THAT is comparatively sexy. AND it's affordable. Same seller has brand new Alcatel "OT Easy" handsets for £25 delivered. JUST the right phone for my 82 year old mother-in-law. She only wants to make voice calls, doesn't want to spend much, and doesn't want anything COMPLICATED. (The OT Easy pretty much defines "ease of use", and at £25 delivered, SIM-free handsets don't come any cheaper!)

A low-level contact within Orange tells me that the supply of cheap 14-day and refurb handsets on sale cheaply to staff has almost dried up, and the discount price is close to new retail. Looks like someone's quietly dumping old stocks.

The first carrier to emulate Vauxhall's "Network Q" - and start offering "as new" handsets at affordable prices will, I believe, discover an ENORMOUS untapped market. It's generally accepted that at 70% ownership, the handset market is "saturated". Horsefeathers! The market for £100+ PAYG phones might be saturated - but the market for £25 ones isn't: the "grannyphone" market is up for grabs. So too is the "swap your PAYG SIM into an affordable "AZNU" handset from a source you can trust!" market. If I could have bought an Orange "14 day" upgrade for my geriatric Motorola somewhere in the £50 price range, I'f have done so - rather than grabbing my son's unlocked Virgin hand-me-down one instead. Virgin are ALREADY selling-off a limited range of 14 day handsets, at 50% of the "new" PAYG RRP - seemingly as a "trial" - at events like big aggricultural fairs. Their stand at the Bath and West show seemed to be doing a LOT more business than Orange's, a dew hundred yards away.

You have the infrastructure already in place - direct sales, dealers... Others have already shown that it's possible to make money from selling nearly-new phones retail. It CAN be done. But they're penny-ante outfits - they have to pay ALL their fixed costs from sales. You wouldn't have to.

Orange is justifiably proud of its "churn rate" - posters plastered all over the office when I worked for you. Here's a chance to IMPROVE on just being #1. Here too is a chance to show that "70%" is NOT "Saturation". Hell, with "grannyphones", you could dump your ENTIRE stocks of geriatric handsets to low-revenue users... knowing that MOST of them are going to spend money on "top-ups" - that they're never going to use. It's money for nothing! In handset terms... stop thinking "sexy". Start considering the radical new concept of "sexier than what he or she CURRENTLY has." It'lll generate sales, and revenue. And with the 3G license to pay for, that probably means safeguarding jobs - one of which could just be yours. It's environmentally friendly too - remember your "I want to be a TREE" advert?

I hope someone from the "right side of the road" at Almondsbury (or the dizzy heights of London) reads this, and gives it some thought. Anyone else it welcome to comment (before a moderator shifts it to "Off topic chat", where nobody from Orange is likely to read it!)

[Guest davy]

Big Ron,

They may well trawl the site but they will be late for work by the time they finish reading the above post. :) ;)

I was a PAYG user prior to the spv and changed my phone regularly.

I was stupid enough to pay over a £100 for a Nokia 3330 (now used by my daughter so she's happy).

I now pay £25 a month on contract for undoubtedly the best phone available which would have cost me £370+ on PAYG at time of purchase. :D :D

PAYG was costing me more than a contract when call costs were taken into consideration.

Guess what I'm trying to say is you pays your money and takes your choice. If as expected handset prices rise to offset call reductions I would imagine more people will turn to pay monthly deals to keep up with technology.

Don't know if this is even on topic but I lost track half way through your post and I'm bored as there's nothing on the news but David bl'8#y Beckham. :x

davy.

[Guest Big Ron - No Longer a Mem]

So, YOU spend £400 a year on airtime/calls (assuming you stay within your "bundled" minutes) and got a "free" phone. (heavily subsidised from your £25 a month contract) I recall an Orange PAYG promotion where if you bought a £50 "top up" card, they credited you with £100 worth of airtime. That 50 quid top up lasted me nearly a YEAR. (It expired two days into my employment by Orange) People's patterns of usage are as different as their fingerprints. If you spend less than £15 a month on "top ups", the only "plus" of a Pay Monthly contract are a few extra services, and the "free" phone - which you're REALLY paying for on extended credit. "Which?" magazine reported around the beginning of the year that around 66% of PAYG users WOULD be better off as Pay Monthly contract holders. I found a contract that suits MY usage - I pay the grand sum of £3.54 for an hour of airtime a month. (which puts your £25 into some kind of perspective) Orange alone has >17m customers - of which roughly 11m are NOT On Pay Monthly contracts. So, if 66% WOULD be better off , 33% WOULDN'T be - and that's around 4,000,000 customers. 30% of the UK population don't own a mobile - maybe they're babies, or technophobic grannies, or simply can't afford either £25 a month or £100 for a PAYG phone. Let's guess that the three groups are evenly divided. UK Population is c.60m That's nearly 7 MILLION "phoneless grannies". If 10% bought a cheap, low-end three year old 14 day phone, and stuck a £25 top up credit on it - which they then DIDN'T USE, that's pretty much the same as handing the Telco who gets there first a cheque for £2m. That's more than 1% of Orange's annual profit - in a market where everyone is scratching their heads and trying to work out how to generate more money from the same number of customers. PAYG customers who DON'T USE their phones are the most lucrative ones there are. They're lending money at zero% interest! Yet... they're not only an unexploited market - they're an IGNORED market. Putting an affordable handset into the handbag of every grannie in the land is a noble cause, too. Media hysteria has put the fear of God into pensioners - they tend not to go out after dark, for fear of being mugged. The ability to dial 999 at a moment's notice would help give them back some self-confidence - and dignity.

[Guest davy]

Big Ron,

Off topic

Orange SPV, at time of purchase, £370 on PAYG with zero free minutes.

£29.99p to buy on pay monthly, £25 per month for 120 free any network minutes and £6 per month for GPRS for initial 6 months = £365.99p.

RESULT = I have the best phone on the market imho, I saved £4.01p and I have free calls which are worth around £500.00p. :) ;) :D :D

On topic

a) The vast majority of older people that I know do not want a mobile.

B) Handsets are to become more expensive to defray cheaper call costs.

c) As technology advances, eg. colour screens, handsets become more expensive to produce.

d) The younger generation are more technologically minded and as mobiles become more complicated as they evolve I would imagine that it is this generation that the phone companies would target.

e)The networks are in business to make a profit, not noble causes.

Result = I do not forsee the networks rushing out to target the older generation.

davy.

[Guest glynton]

Wonder when we'll start seeing Disposable phones that you just buy over the counter and use till they run out of creadit

[Guest morpheus2702]

Hold on, hold on I think someone is listening...

COMPLANSPV.gif

[Guest awarner [MVP]]

Wonder when we'll start seeing Disposable phones that you just buy over the counter and use till they run out of creadit

Still a while away yet but there was an article in the Computer Shopper

magazine last year about disposable phones being developed.

[Guest Big Ron - No Longer a Mem]

"Orange SPV, at time of purchase, £370 on PAYG with zero free minutes..."

I think you've rather missed the point. There appear to be 80,000 people out there so far who DO want to own an SPV. They're somewhat outnumbered by the rest of Orange's >17,000,000 customers who DON'T. Many of the 11m? PAYG customers have phones that belong in museums - and I'm sure that many of THEM would appreciate an affordable upgrade path. YOU got a deal that provided the (expensive) phone YOU wanted at a heavily subsidized price. But you're not everybody - in fact judging by the figures, you're one of a minuscule minority. It looks as if the vast majority wanted a less tech-head phone. But - and this IS guesswork - I imagine that many of the owners of antique handsets WOULD like something more modern that does more-or-less what their OLD phone did - i.e. make voice calls. I "upgraded" from an old Motorola to an Alcatel. It's a hell of a lot easier to use (with the Motorola, it was easier to print out a list of commonly-used numbers and slip it into the leather case then enter them manually than use the "phone book") and it has a few handy features that I use a lot - features that the Motorola didn't have. It's smaller too. And, crucially, the "upgrade" cost me the grand sum of £25 including £5.50 delivery. Would I have paid £100 for an upgrade? NO BLOODY WAY! And I think I'm speaking for a group of antique phone owners who substantially outnumber SPV owners.

And..

a) The vast majority of older people that I know do not want a mobile.

Maybe not - when they cost £100. But if they could be bought for £25? Might be a different story.

:) Handsets are to become more expensive to defray cheaper call costs.

Interesting phrasing. I'd put it as "handset SUBSIDIES are to be reduced because of cheaper call costs". If you bought a "14 day"unlocked handset, you could benefit from the cheaper calls - and the higher cost of NEW phones would be irrelevant.

c) As technology advances, eg. colour screens, handsets become more expensive to produce.

SO, people who just want to be able to make occasional voice calls are being ignored.

d) The younger generation are more technologically minded and as mobiles become more complicated as they evolve I would imagine that it is this generation that the phone companies would target.

The market - as I've already pointed out - has alledgedly reached "saturation point". Phone companies make their money from CALLS, not from selling phones. The more users, and the more calls each one makes, the more money they make. Providing grannies with cheap phones is just ONE way of selling more airtime. Selling SMS and WAP to users whose current phones can't handle either would be another way to increase sales. In fact the BEST way to increase sales is to look not at who is ALREADY buying everything in sight (while ignoring everyone else) but to look at the huge group which ISN'T buying "additional services", and working out WHY NOT. Persuade even just 10% of them ... it's a BIG market. And paradoxically, one that's being effectively ignored. Sell them an UNSUBSIDIZED handset, and you make some REAL money on the calls you sell them.

Sure, "young people" are less technophobic than pensioners. But time affects everyone - as the conveyor belt of anno domini moves a new teenager onto the market, a middle-aged existing costomer is being dropped off the other end (according to your thesis that "old people don't WANT phones") Maybe they just want a different KIND of phone? The marketplace is like an exam. The seller who gets it wrong and thinks that it's the CUSTOMER who is taking the exam (when it's really the vendor) has totally misunderstood the nature of the job. The customer is the one with the money - and that's why they're "always right". If the answers they're giving don't match your questions... then you CHANGE the questions.

[Guest morpheus2702]

Ron, do you really believe some of the things you post? I just think you say them to get a rise:

a) The vast majority of older people that I know do not want a mobile.  

Maybe not - when they cost £100. But if they could be bought for £25? Might be a different story.

Oh come on, that is a bloody big MIGHT! Users like my parents just want to use their phone for emergencies, or "just to be a phone!"

c) As technology advances, eg. colour screens, handsets become more expensive to produce.  

SO, people who just want to be able to make occasional voice calls are being ignored.

People who just want to make occasional voice calls already have the technology required. They are only ignored inasmuch as they do want or need anything more!

d) In fact the BEST way to increase sales is to look not at who is ALREADY buying everything in sight (while ignoring everyone else) but to look at the huge group which ISN'T buying "additional services", and working out WHY NOT.

I really hope you are not in a position of commercial responsibility Ron! I'm sure that the Arabs don't buy a lot of sand. A lot of people don't buy chocolate teapots either. How many pensioners can you really see using WAP?

Come on Ron, try visiting the real world!!!

[Guest davy]

Big Ron said:

Selling SMS and WAP to users whose current phones can't handle either would be another way to increase sales.

:?

[Guest davy]

I really hope you are not in a position of commercial responsibility Ron!  I'm sure that the Arabs don't buy a lot of sand.  A lot of people don't buy chocolate teapots either.  How many pensioners can you really see using WAP?

:) ;)

[Guest morpheus2702]

Missed that one! :oops:

How about selling petrol to people who's cars can only use petrol?

This one could run and run...

[Guest morpheus2702]

Or maybe even diesel?

Sorry Sunday afternoon mong here!

[Guest davy]

Better profit margins with selling them water. :) ;)

davy.

[Guest morpheus2702]

I've just got the kettle on and got settled on the sofa, ready for Ron's response!

[Guest davy]

It could take a while. :roll:

I must admit to a slight feeling of relief after reading in the other post that he has had PC problems.

I was afraid he might be composing a long reply. :shock:

[Guest morpheus2702]

He probably has both... or is down at the local old folks home selling a SPV to the zimmer brigade. :wink:

[Guest davy]

HaHa. :)

One of the strange things though is that from some of his comments he does not actually appear to own an SPV. :shock:

[Guest Scarfman007]

This 'let's be sarcastic about Ron's post' attitude isn't really helping. So what if he writes long replies?? It seems to be everyone on this forum 'vs.' him. No wonder flame-wars start so easily (not saying that this is one).

But then he should have known better than to post on a forum where everyone is part of the minority (and we are guys) that owns SPVs.

OK, so not everyone wants their phone as a fashion item, or wants to be able to emulate game boys on their phone. Nor WAP (definatelly), nor SMS (maybe slightly less here, but how many 60+ people do you see using SMS if they have a mobile that is capable??) ... I think his point was that the old (and I mean reeeally old) phones are difficult to use - especially for this market that can't / don't want to do any of the above features. That the (slightly) newer phones, regardless of the fact that they may have these features, might be EASIER TO USE interface-wise (e.g. icon-based UI are nearly always easier to use than text-based).

He is also talking about the majority of people (i.e. not us) that would not want to spend £400 on a phone and calls per year (either through getting the phone 'free' on contract and staying within our free minutes, or using £400 ( - price of phone) on PAYGO top up vouchers). Ok, it may make sense financially for some of us. But I belive him when he says we are in the minority, and even if we weren't he isn't talking about us, but (as far as I can tell) about people who want a cheap, easy-to-use phone, without the extra features, perhaps slightly smaller than age-old bricks AND only want to use it occasionally.

In this case I belive he has a point and a good idea.

Scarfman

(I've probably got a few things wrong, but I reckon there is a point in there... somewhere!)

[Guest morpheus2702]

No problem with long posts so long as they have something to say!

Ron's posts are normally nothing more than a lot of big words & a lot of stats to cover up the fact that it is all stuff that we have heard before. Read some of his anti-Microsoft rants and tell me how productive that is Scarfman!

If it isn't a rant then it is pie-in-the-sky stuff like this thread which really cannot be taken that seriously!

With regards to the older generation, don't forget that most pensioners can't get their head around a graphical interface. For the most part big text, simply put is the ideal interface.

By that rationale, a Nokia 5110 is the ideal phone - so you tell me if a SMARTPHONE forum is the ideal place to be discussing it?

[Guest davy]

Scarfman,

I think I see your point and RESPECT YOUR OPINION.

That is my point. Big Ron only seems to respect his own opinion.

What is the point in asking for comments merely to try and rip any such comments to pieces?

davy.

[Guest Big Ron - No Longer a Mem]

Ron, do you really believe some of the things you post?  I just think you say them to get a rise:

Oh come on, that is a bloody big MIGHT! Users like my parents just want to use their phone for emergencies, or "just to be a phone!"

People who just want to make occasional voice calls already have the technology required. They are only ignored inasmuch as they do want or need anything more!

I really hope you are not in a position of commercial responsibility Ron! I'm sure that the Arabs don't buy a lot of sand. A lot of people don't buy chocolate teapots either. How many pensioners can you really see using WAP?

Come on Ron, try visiting the real world!!!

I described TWO potential markets. Each different, each potentially lucrative. Seems some of my readers can's handle numbers that big. "Granny phones" is one market. It doesn't involve WAP - just the feeling of security that being able to make calls from wherever you are brings. A small proportion of Pensioners however WILL want WAP - and they'll use it. The local college is providing free courses in computer use - City and Guilds in Microsoft Office and the Web. and 75% of the people taking the courses are retired. It gives them a window into the world their children and grandchildren dwell in, and crucially, it's FREE. So the course is oversubscribed. "Silver surfers" are a major source of income to many ISP's, so let's try not to patronise the wrinklies TOO much, hmmm?

PAYG upgraders are a different (if slightly overlapping) market. Telcos spent a fortune subsidising handsets to gain market share, then stopped - leaving a LOT of people out there with the phones they paid £20-£30 for. Those phones are now "obsolete" - they work, but they don't handle WAP or SMS (My old Mototola handled both - but was a pig to use; it just wasn't worth the effort) The owners of these handsets are a "self delecting group" - they've identified themselves as "people who WANT PAYG, and have shown themselves prepared to spend £20-£30." They did so by SPENDING £20-£30. Offer them another -more modern- handset in roughly the same price range, and my guess is, some of them will take it. Sneer at the word "some" as much as you like. "Some" of 11m users is potentially MORE than the entire population of some European nations. Getting them to buy phones that DO handle SMS and WAP is the first step on the road to getting (dome of) them to spend money on using it. Remember - "revenue per customer" is the name of the game. And when the 3G licence bills arrive on the telco's doormats, it's going to become an expression increasingly familiar to telco employees.

[Guest Big Ron - No Longer a Mem]

Scarfman,

I think I see your point and RESPECT YOUR OPINION.

That is my point. Big Ron only seems to respect his own opinion.

What is the point in asking for comments merely to try and rip any such comments to pieces?  

davy.

There are opinions... and there's flaming. Morpheus for one seems unable to tell one from the other. I posted the idea HERE -in an SPV forum - because it might, just possibly, get read by someone from Orange. It might make Orange some money, and GOD are they going to NEED money when the 3G Licences have to be paid for. One way to balance the books would be another round of redundancies - it's tried, it's tested, it's worked before... Another way would be to try some original thoughts - "We've concentrated on the twenty-somethings, and we're STILL not making enough money. Is there something else we could try? Like... PEOPLE WHO AREN'T TWENTY SOMETHING?" Maybe they could even try concentrating on SEVERAL demographic groups at the same time. Probably not though - one of the few self-confessed Orange employees finds dealing with more than one concept just TOO confusing. Let's try selling old voice-only handsets to the over-seventies, and upgrading the PAYG handsets we sold to people five years back so that we can sell WAP and SMS to their owners. Response? "Over seventies don't want SMS". That's a DIFFERENT GROUP OF PEOPLE. Jeeez - no wonder Orange trainers love Powerpoint so much the pictures are handy for those who haven't managed to get a grip on reading yet.

[Guest morpheus2702]

Oh jeez Ron let me get this straight...

Orange - pays for 3G license - by getting coffin dodgers to use WAP phones? :roll:

There is flaming, and there are just plain stupid ideas. Don't get me wrong, opening up new markets, fresh ideas, new approaches... all good things.

But like I said earlier - I really, REALLY hope you do not have to make any commercial decisions in your job!

[Guest Big Ron - No Longer a Mem]

Oh jeez Ron let me get this straight...

Orange - pays for 3G license - by getting coffin dodgers to use WAP phones?   :roll:  

There is flaming, and there are just plain stupid ideas.  Don't get me wrong, opening up new markets, fresh ideas, new approaches... all good things.

But like I said earlier - I really, REALLY hope you do not have to make any commercial decisions in your job!

Jeez Morpheus. Orange aren't exactly keen to publicise HOW desperate they are to find a way to stave off bankruptcy - like providing streaming hardcore porn direct to your phone. The American based company providing the service puts two or three "actors" on a bed in front of a camera, and you email/SMS a premium number to suggest what you'd like 'em to do LIVE on screen. It's made a fortune for the company on the web - and as they put it "We're currently in negotiations with a UK mobile carrier. We can't tell you the name.... but their brand name is a colour." COmment from Orange Spokesperson when asked to confirm/deny said report? "No comment."

That's what they're ALREADY considering. And in my view, whoever came up with the idea deserves a payrise - they're thinking "outside the box", and remembering that for the early years of the web, porn was about the only thing that made money (and only the "porn pioneers" at that - the market quickly saturated) Be grateful that there's SOMEONE there whose reaction to a new idea isn't quite as smug. Things cannot continue as they are - they change.... or they don't continue. By "things", I include YOUR job.