'3' in Trouble

[Guest xanadu]

News not looking good for 3

May 19, 2003

3 UK may not survive past 2006, having been broken up or sold off by then or earlier, market researchers Enders Analysis predicted in a report in the London Independent.

The newspaper reported last week that the troubled operator’s published 10,000 subscribers may not represent a true estimate of subscriptions if freebies handed out to staff, VIPs, family and friends, as well as returned handsets are taken into account.

The operator has had numerous technical problems since its January launch, and the analysts predict that the company will attract around 84,000 subscribers by the end of 2003, although the researchers’ worst-case scenario prediction is that 3 will end the year with just 30,000 subscribers - far lower than the company’s own prediction of one million subscribers by the end of the year.

The Enders analysts also worry that 3 may not be profitable for another five to seven years. Even by 2010, the analysts say that the company may be losing £158million and £406million. The researchers believe that if this begins to happen, that the company may even be broken up or sold off - something that could happen "as early as the end of 2003, but more likely within the 2004 to 2005 period."

http://www.3gnewsroom.com/3g_news/may_03/n...news_3400.shtml

[Guest superkingdave]

i heard that mmO2 was forced to write off ten billion from its value today with half of it due to the costs associated with 3g

[Guest adam]

It's pretty sad to see that, but it was going to have a slow start. Why buy a videophone if you don't know anyone else with one?

[Guest HungrySPV]

  the company’s own prediction of one million subscribers by the end of the year.

What on earth were they smoking when they came up with that figure ! :shock:

[Guest Big Ron - No Longer a Mem]

I think that here, we have a picture of the future for almost ALL the UK telcos:

"Even by 2010, the analysts say that the company may be losing £158million and £406million."

The smaller figure is a £20million bigger loss than Orange's total profit for 2002, and France Telecom regards Orange as its "cash cow" - one of few subsidiaries that make ANY profit.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again. 3G is going to be a "slow bicycle race" - he who can sustain losses longest will survive. UK Telco's will change hands as corporations with deep pockets step in (Just as IBM bought Lotus to ensure that SOMEONE wrote applications for OS2, Microsoft seems a leading contender to buy up a UK telco, to ensure that someone buys their smartphones, and they've played this game before - Netscape, DR DOS....) It's also likely to lead to a VERY careful re-think of costs. Things you get free now are likely to stop being so. Promotional offers (like the "SPV GPRS bundle") will be fewer - if it doesn't make money, it won't be happening. Tech support, where Orange has traditionally been strong (but where it also wastes a fortune thanks to abysmal personnel management - they're advertising for replacement staff AGAIN today, to make up for the continual losses!) is likely to be carefully examined (because it costs a fortune to run, and it's a "free service") and is likely to be (a) reduced (:) charged for. REALLY "techie" queries are even more expensive to field... I suspect that'll be 100% subcontracted at an expensive premium rate (like 50p a minute)

Despite the adverts, the future doesn't look particularly "bright" to me. It looks like staff reductions, penny pinching, and bankruptcy for one (or more) telco.

[Guest xanadu]

I have heard that '3' closed their Manchester office this week, so many jobs gone there, and a 50% reduction in jobs is due in their new Birmingham office.

The sad thing is that a lot of ex-Orange and Vodafone staff took a chance with working for '3' and now they are left out on the streets.

[Guest Big Ron - No Longer a Mem]

I have heard that '3' closed their Manchester office this week, so many jobs gone there, and a 50% reduction in jobs is due in their new Birmingham office.

The sad thing is that a lot of ex-Orange and Vodafone staff took a chance with working for '3' and now they are left out on the streets.

Given that Orange are mainly based in Bristol, Plymouth, and the far North East (Tyneside)... it's a hell of a way to commute to Birmingham or Manchester from ANY of those places. What makes you say that "a lot of ex-Orange staff..." swapped jobs?

[Guest xanadu]

Given that Orange are mainly based in Bristol, Plymouth, and the far North East (Tyneside)... it's a hell of a way to commute to Birmingham or Manchester from ANY of those places. What makes you say that "a lot of ex-Orange staff..." swapped jobs?

If you really do (or did)work for Orange Big Ron, then you would know that Orange have offices in Manchester and Birmingham, and these have minimum of 200 employees each location. So if you live in Birmingham or Manchester, you could have a journey of less than one mile....or is that too far to travel for you fluffy northerners ?

[Guest Big Ron - No Longer a Mem]

I'm an effette Southerner, I'm afraid - and I worked in Orange's original location - Bristol, which is kind of schizophrenic - sites all over the place, some housing comparatively well-paid Head Office types, some housing call centre types (telling which is which is easy. VERY few Lotuses, Mercs or BMWs parked outside the Callcentre) Bristol's reputedly the smallest regional office, except perhaps for Plymouth - and it holds a hell of a lot more than 200 employees. Thanks to customers misdialing, I've taken calls passed on from a wide range of other departments - but I can't recall any from Manchester or Brum. Most came introduced by cheery Geordie lasses.

If "3" had opened an office in Bristol, and offered jobs to Orange employees, 156 would have closed down the next day for lack of staff.

Ron

[Guest kingdom master]

your all very wrong, first of all 3 used a bombay call centre at first and kept its main call centres on minimal staff at glasgow. the bombay team were on a low wage plus the calling setups are low due to a agreement with onetel to provide cheap network time.

the handsets have been largely supported by the manufacturers and any problems handset related are being then refunded for cost or cancelation and loss of network earnings via the nec or motorola etc..

remember 3 can only provide the platform nothing else the handsets arent down to them.

the staff deals are 99 pound for a phone and the first three months unlimited use bar international and premium service.

3 also recently signed a deal with playboy to provide there content which is said to be worth a few hundred million dollars.

plus other services that are due, and nokia are investing money in several handsets as are ericsson which will be 3g based only. due to the need for network lock only.

all the handsets are capable of full internet access. clocking so far at speeds of 400 kprs however at the moment the sims are locked from doing this and im hoping somoene on here may well find a way to unlock this;-)

plus the motorola and e808 can be used as modems with laptops clocking at 128kprs pretty good id say when using a laptop. and ive tested that one:-)

the network problems have been largely down to the use of bombay provisioning the sims, language barrier etc.. but thath as been solved now. the sims cost 1p to make its nothing. the handset has had two problems one bios failure and no network connection, the bios problem was support by nec and the sim was at a 1p cost to them plus postage.

at the moment im the biggest selling sales person for 3g in the uk, and i know for sure that the problems are small in comparision to what they were last month.

soon there are 4 new tariffs due. and in 8 months 5 new handsets are due. i dont think we will see these guys going anywhere just yet. plus the sponsorship behind the network is massive and loses have been provisioned for the next three years.

so we'll see....

[Guest Will]

a 3 seller!! ok you got to help me out:

How much are data calls per minute/per meg (no line rental option)

Is the non nec phone (i think about 125 quid) - the one without video calling any good?

you got any good handset deals on the 'no line rental' options?

Will (feel free to PM or reply here)

[Guest Big Ron - No Longer a Mem]

"...the sponsorship behind the network is massive and loses have been provisioned for the next three years...."

Inside three years, there'll be competition from Orange, Vodaphone O2 and T Mobile - right now, you're selling to THEIR customers because they're not offering a 3G service. When they're selling 3G handsets, 3's profits will drop (or rather losses will climb) Some of the other telcos belong to transnational corportations who are already heavily overextended. They'll sell - because they'll have no other choice. And the only plausible buyers will be corporations, each with a big enough war chest to convince them that THEY can survive for years of loss making - in exchange for the hope for substantial profits in the long term. This restricts the number of buyers considerably - they need to have a large parcel of shares controlled by a group that thinks long term, not by investment funds which get the jitters if the next quarter's profits look bad. Microsoft fits the template. They have a vested interest in joining the fray - and they've played the game before, many times - and they fight DIRTY. When a player like Microsoft joins the game, the whole nature of the game changes. They make SURE it does! I don't think it's the kind of game that a wise man would want to participate in at the "cannon-fodder" level. But you can bet that when execs get laid off by companies drowning in debt, their payoffs wil be more than generous.

[Guest kingdom master]

NO PROBS,

the data calls, i assume u mean using the phone as the modem to a laptop?

if so as long as ur using a non premium rate number, then it will actually come under ur free minutes.

however the downside there is no actual data tariff that i know of yet. but i can find out for u tomorrow.

the motorola phone, well i got it in stock finally today, and i must say i was suprised although the video capture isnt as good as the nec the actual menu system is cool.

the screen animation on start up is very impressive the menu is rather like the t720i motorola.

the best thing about the phone is the 32mg sd card and the web browsers seems to be symbian based. however the sims aparently restrict the use of this service at the moment. but if u can find a dedicated 3g development forum perhaps somoene can unlock it?

the buetooth is very good much better than gsm phones and with the release of the 200 metre bluetooth units this summer its looking great!.

hope this helps.

[Guest kingdom master]

big ron, your point is good, however t mobile and orange will be the first to launch 3g off a gsm network and the roll out is plann for early next year for orange and late next year for t mobile.

i think the martet wil change alot by then, remember pay as u go is going. pay up front is gone. contracts pricing are going down while phone prices are going up. i would say that when 3g starts rollout via gsm networks. huchinson will already have its own customer base, similar to such networks as onetel and virgin. although it wont be large compared to already established networks it will be sustainable.

in the end i think we will see networks combining. as no network will be able to front the loses that have been nade over the past few years.

you only have to look at the loses made my 02 recently.

i would say orange and to mobile will combine. 02 will base its netowork more in europe while virgin and onetel will stop pay and go and become the only available pay up front deals.

vodafone i feel will remain and succeed with 3g more than any other however i also feel they will be the last to roll it out due to the fact they plan many things with voda live service having just launched the voda live 2 service.

[Guest siu99spj]

the buetooth is very good much better than gsm phones and with the release of the 200 metre bluetooth units this summer its looking great!.

hope this helps.

200m Bluetooth? The Bluetooth spec is only for 10m so how on earth do you propose a 200m thing? Unless your device is breaking the Bluetooth spec and therefore cannot be called Bluetooth, it will only be 10m, NOT 200m.

Otherwise, I'm gonna wait till the dust settles over this 3G business. My SPV was the first WAP/GPRS phone I've EVER had (Before was the uggy 3310), so I can wait. Besides, Broadband at home is much better!

[Guest Monolithix [MVP]]

There are 3 BT classes, A, B and C.

I can't remember the specifics, however they relate to the range, these being ~2m, ~10m and ~100m (i think 200m is a little optomistic...)

[Guest kingdom master]

nop 200 m bluetooth is coming very soon!!

confirmed by orange who wil be stocking them,

[Guest Chris b.a.r.f.]

Maybe this is just me being naîve here; isn't it a bit, like, risky trying to see three years into the future where the mobile comms market is concerned? I mean, it's not as if things here stand still for long, and we'll probably be laughing at "quaint" 3G tech by then anyway... :)

[Guest Matt Whitfield]

The biggest threat to 3G is 802.11b and the poliferation of Wi-Fi hot spots in my opinion...

[Guest xanadu]

you only have to look at the loses made my 02 recently.

I guess that is why O2 are thinking of terminating their contract with '3'.

Let's face it....the '3' network only covers major cities and towns and some motorways, and without O2 they don't have a useable network.

People just want to be able to make phone calls and text friends, and play a few games...we already have these functions in 2.5g, so 3G is doomed to fail, as we already have four GSM networks that cover 99% of the population.

[Guest badboy4life]

This technology is only new and will take time to catch on, there are a lot of people subscribing to the service and the network is already been upgraded to cope with more users!

Another factor which works in its favour is the fact that many high end users are finding their tariffs very cheap.

Ok their service is sh*t and the only good thing is the football downloads and with the season over that ain't much use either! But i ain't complaining they're giving me free calls :-) :-) :-)